"The Ivory Coast crop is definitely where we see the deficit coming from compared with last year," Davies said, in the first interview the major Swiss-based commodity merchant has given on the crop.
ECOM, which focuses primarily on cocoa, coffee and cotton, forecasts the Ivory Coast main crop (October/March) at around 1.0 million tonnes, down from 1.25 million last year, following dry weather during the summer.
There were improved rains in October, but these would only start to boost production towards the end of the main crop season, Davies told Reuters, adding: "The soil moisture was really poor and we needed that rain to bounce back to some sort of normality."
Davies said port arrivals in Ivory Coast will be around 50,000 to 55,000 tonnes per week this month. In the same period last year arrivals ranged from around 60,000 to 80,000 tonnes.
The prospect of a global deficit in 2015/16 has helped to fuel a run-up in prices, with London futures climbing to a 4-1/2 year high of 2,332 pounds a tonne on Tuesday.
"Can prices go up from here? Certainly. Fundamentally prices of 2,300 (pounds a tonne) are justified," Davies said, adding that higher prices could however curb demand growth.
"I think chocolate demand will be around flat for the coming year," he said, noting the global cocoa grind might grow by between 1 and 2 percent.
Global grinds fell around 4 percent in 2014/15 on a combination of weaker chocolate demand and destocking of products including cocoa butter.
ECOM's global deficit projection is based on a forecast of 610,000 tonnes for the mid-crop in Ivory Coast, only slightly below last year's record 650,000 tonnes, but dry harmattan winds could lead to a more significant decline in production.
Dry weather could also curb production in Indonesia, the world's third-largest cocoa producer. "Indonesia is a shocker in terms of weather, that's where the El Nino really hit," Davies said. "The dry weather there was very obvious, that's got better in the last few weeks, but we didn't see much rainfall for a few months there."
El Nino is a weather phenomenon which typically leads to hot, dry weather in southeast Asia and heavy rains in parts of South America.
Production in Ghana should rise this season but only modestly with a total crop of 760,000 tonnes, up from the prior season's 720,000 tonnes, Davies said.
Ghana, the second largest cocoa producer, had a much lower than expected crop in 2014/15. The reason for the crop failure remains unclear with a lack of pesticides and poor weather among the factors which have been cited.
"We think Ghana will be better than last year from a very low base," Davies said. "We don't see a huge bounce."
By: Reuters.
12 Great Dividend Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever.
Members of Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index that have raised cash payments to stockholders 25 years in a row are known as dividend aristocrats. The title dividend champions
goes to U.S. stocks, regardless of size, with 25 consecutive increases.
There are 105 champions, a handful of which are working to extend more
than 60 years of increases. But some U.S. businesses have been doling
out cash to public stockholders for longer than six decades. Much
longer, in fact. So Kiplinger now presents the dividend centenarians.
We identified a dozen investments that have paid cash dividends annually for at least a century.
That’s not to say they’ve granted raises every year for 100 years. But
some have never cut their dividend. Most of these companies have humble,
workshop-floor origins, but they are not quaint. Most have evolved over
their long histories into enormous, multifaceted, worldwide
enterprises, providing great growth as well as dividends. Take a look at
this intriguing list of income stocks. Some of the names might surprise
you.
York Water Company.
Dividends paid since: 1815
Current yield: 2.6%
Last increase: 4.0%, declared in November 2015
Analysts’ opinion: 0 buy, 2 hold, 0 sell
This small water utility serving York, Pa., and surrounding towns, whose sign and scenic reservoir, Lake Redman, are landmarks along Interstate 83, has been paying cash since James Madison was president. There’s no evidence that he was a shareholder.
Stanley Black & Decker.
Dividends paid since: 1877
Current yield: 2.0%
Last increase: 5.8%, July 2015
Analysts’ opinion: 8 buy, 12 hold, 0 sell
Founded as a bolt and hand-tool company in pre-Civil-War Connecticut, Stanley acquired Black & Decker in 2010 and is now big in sophisticated stuff such as electronic security systems and secure hospital supply storage units.
ExxonMobil.
Dividends paid since: 1882
Current yield: 3.6%
Last increase: 5.8%, April 2015
Analysts’ opinion: 7 buy, 12 hold, 5 sell
Descended from the original Standard Oil Trust controlled by John D. Rockefeller, ExxonMobil shows no signs of turning off the dividend spigot despite the downturn in oil prices.
Eli Lilly.
Dividends paid since: 1885
Current yield: 2.4%
Last increase: 2.2%, December 2014
Analysts’ opinion: 14 buy, 7 hold, 0 sell
Lilly, a research-oriented drug company that has never dabbled much in anything else, is on a roll, with its shares up more than 24% in 2015 and an annualized 22% total return since 2010. Its current diabetes, cancer and pain drugs, plus Prozac, weren’t on Lilly’s menu in its early days, but it made a name for itself by offering the first widely available prescription insulin.
Consolidated Edison.
Dividends paid since: 1885
Current yield: 4.2%
Last increase: 3.2%, January 2015
Analysts’ opinion: 0 buy, 11 hold, 7 sell
Utilities have been a splendid source of dividends for 130 years, thanks in no small part to New York City’s power company. ConEd is also working on a streak of 41 straight annual raises. (Wall Street analysts often sneer at utilities although they have been splendid investments. So view those low opinions with a high degree of skepticism).
UGI.
Dividends paid since: 1885
Current yield: 2.6%
Last increase: 4.6%, April 2015
Analysts’ opinion: 2 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell
UGI is a variegated energy company whose main businesses are Pennsylvania natural gas utilities and the distribution of propane in the U.S. and Europe. Its shares have held their value in 2015 despite substantial declines in the shares of some companies with similar holdings.
Johnson Controls.
Dividends paid since: 1887
Current yield: 2.5%
Last increase: 11.5%, November 2015
Analysts’ opinion: 12 buy, 10 hold, 1 sell
Johnson Controls is a wild stock, known for 40% calendar-year gains followed by extended periods of weakness. It should become more stable next year after it finishes spinning off its automotive parts businesses, leaving Johnson with energy-efficiency and security systems for commercial buildings.
Procter & Gamble.
Dividends paid since: 1891
Current yield: 3.5%
Last increase: 3.0%, April 2015
Analysts’ opinion: 8 buy, 13 hold, 2 sell
Ignore 2015’s dull results for P&G stock—it may end the year with a very rare loss—and note instead its 59-year streak of increased dividends. P&G is reportedly going to eliminate many slow-growing product offerings to try to get its shares moving again.
Colgate-Palmolive.
Dividends paid since: 1895
Current yield: 2.3%
Last increase: 5.6%, February 2015
Analysts’ opinion: 4 buy, 19 hold, 1 sell
Household cleanser, mouthwash, toothpaste and soap are perennial sellers, so Colgate marches along, slowly but reliably, with predictable dividend boosts of 8 to 12 cents a year.
General Mills.
Dividends paid since: 1898
Current yield: 3.0%
Last increase: 7.3%, March 2015
Analysts’ opinion: 4 buy, 11 hold, 3 sell
There’s big money in flour and cereal. General Mills is a reliable dividend raiser, with boosts of 17% in 2011 and 2014. This year’s hike is lower because the company’s enormous overseas business brings in currencies that are presently worth fewer dollars, given the strength of the buck. But General Mills is still a powerhouse that has never even once cut its dividend.
PPG Industries.
Dividends paid since: 1899
Current yield: 1.4%
Last increase: 7.5%, April 2015
Analysts’ opinion: 16 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell
PPG stands for Pittsburgh Plate Glass, but the company makes way more money now from coatings, paints and chemicals than from glass. Lately, PPG has advanced from a 3% dividend raiser to 7% and up. It's one of the reasons we recently named PPG a great dividend stock for retirement.
Church & Dwight.
Dividends paid since: 1901
Current yield: 1.6%
Last increase: 8.1%, January 2015
Analysts’ opinion: 6 buy, 13 hold, 2 sell
The maker of Arm & Hammer, Oxi-Clean and Trojans products is one of a few rare stocks to generate double-digit total returns every year since 2010. High profit margins underwrite brisk dividend boosts, too: 7% and up every year since 2010.
By: Jeffery R. Kosnett.
Review: Emerging Market Formulations & Research Unit, Flagship Records.
For The #FacebookTeam